The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed up 1.11% to stand above 268,000, fluctuating at highs amid supply disruptions and policy games [SMM tin futures brief comment]

[Tin Market Daily Review, July 22, 2025]

Price Movement: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) fluctuated upward in the afternoon session, closed at 268,520 yuan/mt, up 2,950 yuan (1.11%) from the previous day.

The intraday trading range was 265,720-268,930 yuan/mt with a settlement price of 267,430 yuan/mt. Trading Volume & Open Interest: Trading volume reached 63,667 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,931 lots to 16,761 lots, indicating profit-taking activities.

LME Tin Market Update LME Tin Price: LME tin closed at $33,800/mt, up 0.37%, fluctuating rangebound around $33,680/mt during Asian trading hours.

Domestic Positive Factors: MIIT promoted "anti-rat race" policies for ten industries including steel and nonferrous metals, requiring outdated capacity elimination, with capital inflows boosting market sentiment in the nonferrous sector.

International Risks: The deadlock in EU-US trade negotiations remains unresolved, with the threat of 30% tariffs effective August 1 still pending, limiting price upside room due to risk-off sentiment.

Short-term Outlook: Prices are supported by ore shortages and policy tailwinds, but high prices suppress spot procurement while Myanmar's expected production resumptions (H2 incremental supply) cap long-term upside.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate between 265,000-270,000 yuan/mt, with LME tin projected at $33,000-34,000/mt.